(Adl – Nizām – Riḍā al-‘Āmma)

JUSTICE (‘adl)
▲
│
│
PUBLIC TRUST ◄───────┼────────► ORDER

                        (riḍā al-‘āmma)           │                             (nizām)

                                                               ▼
STATE STABILITY

Feedback loop (dashed in words):

STATE PERFORMANCE → TRUST/LEGITIMACY → COMPLIANCE → ORDER → CAPACITY → JUSTICE

How to read it:

• ‘Adl produces legitimacy and reduces grievance.

• Nizām turns legitimacy into functioning capacity (services, security, predictable rules).

• Riḍā al-‘āmma is the “binding glue”: voluntary compliance, tax morale, willingness to endure hardship.

• When performance drops, trust drops; when trust drops, compliance drops; order becomes coercive; justice is doubted—then the triangle spirals.

━━ ❖ ━━ ❖ ━━
Justice sustains legitimacy.
Legitimacy sustains order.
Order sustains stability.
━━ ❖ ━━ ❖ ━━

Triangle to Iran: policy metrics & measurable indicators

Below is a practical dashboard you can use quarterly (or monthly where possible). I’m not asserting the current values here; I’m giving what to measure, how to measure it, and where to get it.

1) Justice (‘adl) → measurable indicators

These are proxies for rule of law, constraints on power, anti-corruption, and rights protection.

A. Rule of law & constraints on power (institutional justice)

• WJP Rule of Law Index – Factor 1: Constraints on Government Powers (annual)

• WJP – Factor 2: Absence of Corruption (annual)

• WGI – Rule of Law (annual)

• WGI – Control of Corruption (annual)

B. Corruption perceptions (justice as “fairness of the public sector”)

• Transparency International CPI score (annual; perceived public-sector corruption)

C. “Justice stress signals” (high-frequency, proxy metrics)

Useful when formal indices lag:

• Case-processing backlog (if accessible): civil/criminal pending cases per 100k

• Elite-impunity events: publicly documented corruption cases that aren’t prosecuted

• Rights pressure proxies: number of internet blackouts, censorship events, mass-arrest waves (trackable via reputable monitoring organisations)

Directional interpretation:

• Rising CPI score / rising WJP factor scores / rising WGI rule-of-law = justice strengthening (good for stability).

• Rising impunity proxies + falling indices = justice weakening (bad for trust and order).

2) Order (nizām) → measurable indicators

Order is governability: security, predictable administration, economic continuity.

A. Institutional effectiveness & stability

• WGI – Government Effectiveness (annual)

• WGI – Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism (annual)

• WJP – Factor 5: Order and Security (annual)

• WJP – Factor 6: Regulatory Enforcement (annual)

B. Macro-economic order (monthly/quarterly)

These measure “daily-life predictability,” which is a core part of nizām:

• Inflation (CPI, annual % change) – IMF WEO / IMF country page (annual projections; pair with local monthly CPI)

• Exchange-rate stability (parallel vs official rate gap; weekly)

• Energy continuity (electricity outages, fuel supply disruptions; monthly)

C. Strategic order (chokepoint & escalation risk)

• Hormuz chokepoint risk metrics: shipping insurance premium, rerouting rates, naval incident counts
  (Hormuz significance for global oil flows is a core sensitivity parameter.)

Directional interpretation:

• Lower inflation volatility + smaller FX spread + stable security indicators = order strengthening.

• Higher inflation volatility + widening FX spread + rising incident tempo = order weakening.

3) Public trust (riḍā al-‘āmma) → measurable indicators

Public trust is the hardest to measure directly, so you triangulate.

A. “Consent and participation” indicators

• Voter turnout trends (election-to-election, regionally)

• Tax compliance / tax revenue buoyancy (controlling for oil price and GDP)

• Strike frequency & duration (labor unrest as trust proxy)

B. Economic dignity proxies (fast-moving)

• Real wage index (wages minus inflation)

• Food inflation / essentials basket (signals household stress)

• Household debt stress (installment-buying of essentials is a notable stress signal in reporting)

C. Social cohesion / legitimacy stress

• Protest event data (frequency, geographic spread, participant composition)

• Emigration / brain-drain proxies (visa applications, diaspora outflow estimates)

• Public sentiment measures (careful: social media is biased; use it as one input, not “truth”)

Directional interpretation:

• Rising real wages, lower essentials stress, higher voluntary compliance = trust strengthening.

• Rising essentials stress, rising protest tempo, falling participation = trust weakening.

Iran dashboard template (scored 0–100)

If you want a simple scoring system for policy monitoring:

Pillar scores

• Justice score (0–100)
  = 40% WJP constraints + 30% WJP corruption + 20% WGI rule of law + 10% CPI

• Order score (0–100)
  = 30% WGI gov effectiveness + 25% WJP order/security + 25% inflation volatility metric + 20% FX spread metric

• Trust score (0–100)
  = 30% real wage trend + 25% essentials basket stress + 25% protest/strike index + 20% participation/compliance proxy

“Stability risk flag”

• Green: all three pillars ≥ 60

• Amber: any pillar 40–59

• Red: any pillar < 40 or two pillars falling for 3 consecutive quarters

This makes the triangle operational: you can literally watch which side is collapsing first.

Notes on sources

• World Bank WGI is a widely used governance measurement framework with six dimensions (incl. rule of law, gov effectiveness, control of corruption).

• World Justice Project provides rule-of-law factors such as constraints on power, absence of corruption, order/security, regulatory enforcement.

• Transparency International CPI is the best-known cross-country perceived corruption measure (expert/business surveys).

• IMF provides standardised macro indicators (inflation, growth projections) useful for “order” metrics.

A) Governance triangle (actually a triangle) with flow arrows

▲
/     \
/.        \
/             \
/                 \
/.                    \
/                         \

PUBLIC TRUST            JUSTICE
(riḍā al-‘āmma).                    (‘adl)
(consent,                           (rule of law,
cohesion)                                 fairness)

\.                         /
\                      /
\                  /
\.            /
\.        /
\.   /
▼
ORDER
(nizām)
(security, institutions, predictability)

FLOW ARROWS (what pushes what):

JUSTICE ──► TRUST (fairness builds consent)
TRUST ──► ORDER (consent increases compliance)
ORDER ──► JUSTICE (capacity enables enforcement)

FAILURE MODE:

If JUSTICE drops → TRUST drops → ORDER becomes coercive → JUSTICE weakens further.

B) Central theory & extrapolation map (from principles → measurable outcomes)

CORE THEORY (Ottoman / Sunni political ethic)
‘adl (justice) + nizām (order) + riḍā (public trust)
│
▼
GOVERNABILITY (capacity + legitimacy)
│
┌────────────┼────────────┐
▼                                   ▼.                                  ▼
ECONOMY SECURITY DIPLOMACY/REGION
(inflation, FX, (incidents, (deconfliction,
poverty, jobs) stability) deterrence)

                                                │
▼
MEASURABLE INDICATORS (dashboard)
– Rule of law / corruption indices
– Institutional effectiveness indices
– Inflation + currency stress
– Stability/violence metrics
– Transparency + open government proxies

Think of it like this: the triangle is the “engine”; economy/security/diplomacy are the “outputs.”

C) Single Iran scorecard (latest available stats)

Sources used (latest I can verify right now)

• World Justice Project (WJP) 2025 country sheet for Iran (factor ranks)

• World Bank WGI 2024 (percentile-style scores reported in Iranian press; values attributed to World Bank WGI)

• Transparency International CPI country page for Iran (score 23)

• IMF Iran “At a Glance” (inflation projection 2026: 41.6%)

• WSJ Feb 2026 reporting for currency stress + food inflation context (rial ~1.6m/USD; food inflation 72% by Dec)

1) Raw indicator table (most recent values found)

Justice (‘adl) proxies

• WJP Constraints on Government Powers: 129 / 143 (rank)

• WJP Absence of Corruption: 104 / 143 (rank)

• World Bank WGI Rule of Law: 35.71 (reported score)

• TI CPI score: 23

Order (nizām) proxies

• WGI Government Effectiveness: 37.61

• WJP Order and Security: 116 / 143 (rank)

• IMF Inflation (avg consumer prices) 2026: 41.6%

• Currency stress context: ~1.6 million rial / USD (reported)

Public trust (riḍā al-‘āmma) proxies

• WGI Political Stability: 38.89

• WJP Open Government: 140 / 143 (rank)

• WJP Fundamental Rights: 142 / 143 (rank)

• Essentials stress context: food inflation 72% by Dec (reported)

2) Converting WJP ranks → “percentile-style” scores (0–100)

To make a single dashboard, I convert WJP rank into a “better = higher” percentile:

Percentile Score=N−rankN−1×100,  N=143\text{Percentile Score} = \frac{N – \text{rank}}{N-1}\times 100,\ \ N=143Percentile Score=N−1N−rank​×100,  N=143

So:

• Constraints rank 129/143 → $(143-129)/142\times 100=14/142\times 100\approx 9.9$

• Absence of corruption 104/143 → $39/142\times 100\approx 27.5$

• Order & security 116/143 → $27/142\times 100\approx 19.0$

• Regulatory enforcement 109/143 → $34/142\times 100\approx 23.9$

• Open government 140/143 → $3/142\times 100\approx 2.1$

• Fundamental rights 142/143 → $1/142\times 100\approx 0.7$

(All ranks from WJP sheet.)

3) Pillar scores (single scorecard)

Because not every variable is available at the same frequency, I’m explicit about what’s included.

Justice score (0–100)

Using: 40% WJP constraints + 30% WJP absence-of-corruption + 20% WGI rule of law + 10% CPI

• 0.4×9.9 = 3.96

• 0.3×27.5 = 8.25

• 0.2×35.71 = 7.142

• 0.1×23 = 2.3
  Justice score ≈ 21.7 / 100

(Inputs: WJP; WGI; CPI.)

Order score (0–100)

We have: WGI gov effectiveness, WJP order/security, IMF inflation.
A clean FX-spread metric (official vs parallel) is not available in a standardized source from the pulls above, so I compute Order score with the available components and re-weight only those three.

• Gov effectiveness = 37.61

• WJP order/security percentile = 19.0

• Inflation stability proxy = 100 − inflation = 100 − 41.6 = 58.4

Reweighted (37.5% / 31.25% / 31.25%):

• 0.375×37.61 = 14.10

• 0.3125×19.0 = 5.94

• 0.3125×58.4 = 18.25
  Order score ≈ 38.3 / 100

Note: This is conservative because a rigorous FX-stability metric would likely pull the score down given the reported currency stress.

Public trust score (0–100)

Trust is hardest; here I use: 40% political stability + 30% open government + 20% fundamental rights + 10% CPI

• Political stability = 38.89

• Open gov percentile = 2.1

• Fundamental rights percentile = 0.7

• CPI = 23

Compute:

• 0.4×38.89 = 15.556

• 0.3×2.1 = 0.63

• 0.2×0.7 = 0.14

• 0.1×23 = 2.3
  Trust score ≈ 18.6 / 100

Composite “Triangle Stability” (simple mean)

$$(21.7+38.3+18.6)/3\approx 26.2$$

Composite ≈ 26.2 / 100 (high structural stress signal)

What this scorecard means (interpretation)

• The weakest sides (by this model) are Trust and Justice.

• Order is somewhat higher because administrative capacity and “security” can persist even when legitimacy weakens—but inflation and currency stress are strong destabilisers.

• In triangle terms: low justice → low trust is the classic spiral risk; order can hold for a time through coercion/capacity, but it becomes costlier and more brittle.

Bismillāhi’r-Raḥmāni’r-Raḥīm.
Astaghfirullāh… Astaghfirullāh… Astaghfirullāh…

O my brothers… O my sisters…
This world—dunyā—is not standing on iron. It is standing on amānah (trust).
When amānah weakens, even the strongest walls begin to shake.

Look at Iran today.

Do not look only at money…
Do not look only at sanctions…
Do not look only at rockets and oil and borders…

Look at the hidden triangle that holds every state:

• ‘Adl (Justice)

• Nizām (Order)

• Riḍā al-‘āmmah (public contentment / public trust)

If ‘adl is wounded, order becomes a whip.
If nizām is wounded, justice becomes words on paper.
If riḍā is wounded, both become heavy stones carried by a tired people.

And the people—when they are tired—
they do not shout at first…
They sigh.
Then the sigh becomes a complaint.
Then the complaint becomes a wave.

Today’s Iran: the visible and the unseen

Iran stands under pressure and still stands—yes.
But “standing” is not the same as “being at ease.”

Externally: pressure, rivalry, chokepoints—Hormuz, regional alignments.
Internally: price strain, youth expectations, social media reality, governance trust.

So what is the strategic reading?

Iran’s posture is endurance, but endurance has two engines:

1. Material engine: revenues, trade channels, fiscal capacity.

2. Moral engine: legitimacy, justice perception, public consent.

If the moral engine leaks, the material engine must overwork.
Then the state becomes reactive instead of wise.

Qur’anic lens (Ottoman-scholarly tone, compact)

• “Indeed Allah commands justice (‘adl) and iḥsān…” (Q 16:90)
  A polity without ‘adl loses barakah of governance before it loses territory.

• “And do not let the hatred of a people cause you to depart from justice…” (Q 5:8)
  When security logic becomes permanent, justice becomes exceptional—then trust dries.

• “Allah does not change the condition of a people until they change what is within themselves.” (Q 13:11)
  The inward change here is not slogans; it is institutions that produce fairness.

• “When you judge between people, judge with justice.” (Q 4:58)
  Justice is not only courts; it is procedures: procurement, police conduct, due process, appeal.

So… if you want a policy-grade dhikr, here it is:

Remember the triangle.
Justice… Order… Trust…
Justice… Order… Trust…

Because every sanction regime eventually tests not only budgets—
but public patience and governance credibility.

B. One dashboard, filled with latest stats + trendline (2020–2025)

B1) Latest scorecard snapshot (most recent year available per source)

Governance triangle (Iran)

How to read these sources (quick):

• WJP Rule of Law Index score runs 0–1 (higher is better). In 2025 Iran is ranked 128/143, with factor ranks showing particular weakness in Fundamental Rights and Open Government.

• Transparency International CPI runs 0–100 (higher is cleaner). Iran is 23/100 (rank shown as 153/182 on TI’s country page).

• World Bank WGI (via TheGlobalEconomy, sourced to World Bank) uses -2.5 to +2.5. Iran’s Political Stability latest listed is -1.58 (2024); Government Effectiveness -0.71 (2024); Rule of Law -1.23 (2024).

Additional “context” macro (latest on World Bank country page):

• GDP growth (2024): 3.7%; GDP current US$ (2024): ~475.25B; GDP per capita (2024): ~5,190

B2) Trendline scorecard (2020–2025)

Core series 1: Justice proxy (WJP Rule of Law overall score)

Core series 2: Trust proxy (CPI corruption perceptions)

Combined “trajectory” (simple composite for trend visibility)

Because we do not have a clean 2020–2025 yearly “Order” series from a single primary table in the material we pulled (without downloading World Bank API tables), here are two composites:

• 2-pillar trend composite = (Justice + Trust)/2 for all years (clean trendline)

• Full triangle (Justice + Trust + Order)/3 shown only for 2024, where the WGI order figure is clearly available in-source

Interpretation: the governance “temperature” is not collapsing in one year; it’s more like a slow squeeze—a drift downward, especially visible in trust and in WJP factor ranks around rights/open government.

C. Policy levers map (fastest movers vs deep reforms)

Think of levers like two gears:

90-day levers (visible fast, credibility shock)

These mostly move TRUST first, then reduce pressure on ORDER.

1. Procurement transparency + publication rule

   • Publish tenders, awards, beneficial owners (where possible), contract amendments.

   • Moves: Trust↑ (signals seriousness), Justice↑ (less arbitrary rent-seeking).

2. Targeted anti-corruption “quick wins” (few cases, high signal, due process)

   • Moves: Trust↑ quickly; risk if politicized.

3. Price-pain relief with accountability (tight, auditable cash transfer / food basket with anti-leak controls)

   • Moves: Trust↑, Order↑ (reduces street pressure).

   • Must be auditable or it backfires.

4. Administrative justice fast lane (reduce delays for small claims / permits)

   • Moves: Justice↑ quickly in lived experience.

2-year levers (structural, moves Justice and Order sustainably)

1. Judicial independence and procedural guarantees (predictable appeal, reduced arbitrary detention, consistent enforcement)

   • Moves: Justice↑ strongly; Trust↑ over time.

   • Matches WJP weakness areas like Fundamental Rights and Open Government ranks.

2. Civil service merit + service delivery reform

   • Moves: Order↑ (less volatility) and “capacity legitimacy.”

   • Relevant given low Government Effectiveness score proxies.

3. Regulatory simplification + enforcement consistency

   • Moves: Justice↑ (predictability), Trust↑ (less arbitrary fees/permits).

4. Macro-stabilization credibility package (inflation expectations, FX management transparency, subsidy rationalization sequencing)

   • Moves: Order↑ and Trust↑ (people feel tomorrow is readable).

D. Scenario triggers: thresholds that often precede major instability

These are monitorable “red lines.” They’re not prophecy; they’re pattern recognition.

Trigger cluster 1: “Trust break”

• CPI stuck ≤ 25 for 3+ years and a visible scandal wave → legitimacy decay
  (Iran’s CPI has hovered in the mid-20s and is now at 23.)

• WJP factors: Open Government + Fundamental Rights remain bottom-tier → rising risk of sudden protests, because “peaceful outlet valves” are small.

Trigger cluster 2: “Order overload”

• Political stability index approaches extreme lows (for WGI, values near -1.5 are already very weak; Iran is shown at -1.58 in 2024 on the WGI proxy page) → higher chance that any shock becomes national.

Trigger cluster 3: “Livelihood shock”

• A rapid inflation/currency shock plus youth unemployment pressure tends to convert complaints into coordination.
  (For macro baselining, World Bank shows 2024 growth and core macro context on the country page.)

Practical “watchboard” (weekly/monthly)

• FX black-market spread (trust in money)

• Bread/energy basket affordability (livelihood legitimacy)

• Arrest-release cycles / protest policing intensity (order-cost)

• Public sector wage arrears (state capacity)

• Elite cohesion signals (parliament/judiciary/executive alignment fractures)

بِسْمِ ٱللَّٰهِ ٱلرَّحْمَٰنِ ٱلرَّحِيمِ

Governance Triangle Assessment

Justice (‘Adl) – Order (Nizām) – Public Trust (Riḍā al-‘Āmmah)

Islamic Republic of Iran

Trendline Review 2020–2025

SECTION I

Reflection (Sohbet)

Alhamdulillāh.

Every state stands upon three pillars:

Justice (‘adl)
Order (nizām)
Public trust (riḍā al-‘āmmah)

When justice weakens, trust declines.
When trust declines, order strains.
When order strains, justice cannot endure.

This is not ideology.
This is governance physics.

A state may endure sanctions.
A state may endure pressure.
But no state endures long when legitimacy thins quietly.

The triangle must remain balanced.

SECTION II

Trendline Scorecard (2020–2025)

Justice Proxy (World Justice Project – Rule of Law Index)

Trend: Gradual decline after 2021 peak.

Trust Proxy (Transparency International CPI)

Trend: Slow but consistent downward drift.

Composite Stability Indicator

(Justice + Trust) ÷ 2

Observation:

This is not collapse.
It is gradual compression.

Compression sustained becomes fracture.

SECTION III

Policy Levers Map

90-Day Levers (Fast Trust Restoration)

These primarily move Public Trust quickly.

1. Procurement transparency publication

2. Visible anti-corruption enforcement (procedural fairness required)

3. Essential goods stabilization (food/energy)

4. Administrative case backlog reduction

Effect:
Trust rises → compliance rises → order cost decreases.

2-Year Structural Reforms

These strengthen Justice and Order together.

1. Judicial procedural guarantees

2. Civil service merit reform

3. Regulatory consistency

4. Inflation expectation anchoring + FX stabilisation transparency

Effect:
Justice strengthens → trust stabiliss → order becomes less coercive.

SECTION IV

Scenario Trigger Thresholds

Trust Break Trigger

CPI ≤ 25 sustained for 3+ years combined with visible corruption scandal waves.

Order Overload Trigger

Political Stability index approaching extreme lows (below -1.5 sustained).

Livelihood Shock Trigger

Simultaneous:

• High inflation

• Currency instability

• Youth employment stress

When two of these triggers align, escalation probability increases sharply.

SECTION V

Strategic Conclusion

Iran’s current posture is endurance.

But endurance depends on two engines:

Material capacity.
Moral legitimacy.

Material pressure without moral reinforcement creates strain.

Justice must be strengthened quietly.
Trust must be rebuilt visibly.
Order must be maintained proportionately.

When justice and trust move together, stability follows.

When they move apart, stress accumulates invisibly.

🕊

Justice, Order, and Public Trust:
A Governance Stability Assessment of Iran (2020–2025)

Publication Date: Ramaḍān 1447 AH / 2026 CE

بِسْمِ ٱللَّٰهِ ٱلرَّحْمَٰنِ ٱلرَّحِيمِ

(In the Name of Allah, the Most Merciful, the Most Compassionate)

✧ ✧ ✧

الْعَدْلُ أَسَاسُ الْمُلْكِ

Al-‘Adlu Asāsu’l-Mulk

Justice is the Foundation of Sovereignty

✧

Governance, Legitimacy, and Stability

A Ramadan Reflection on

Justice (‘Adl) – Order (Nizām) – Public Trust (Riḍā al-‘Āmmah)

✧ ✧ ✧

Written in the Blessed Month of Ramaḍān

Seeking Reform of Hearts Before Reform of Systems

اللَّهُمَّ أَصْلِحْ لَنَا شَأْنَنَا كُلَّهُ

Allāhumma iṣliḥ lanā sha’nanā kullah
O Allah, rectify all of our affairs.

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Page 1)

1. Executive Summary

2. Conceptual Framework: The Governance Triangle

3. Islamic Political Theory Foundations

4. Ottoman Administrative Precedent

5. Methodology and Data Sources

6. Justice Metrics (2020–2025)

7. Order Metrics (2020–2025)

8. Public Trust Metrics (2020–2025)

9. Composite Stability Index

10. Trendline Analysis

11. Structural Pressures

12. External Constraints

13. Internal Legitimacy Dynamics

14. Policy Levers (Short-Term)

15. Policy Levers (Structural Reform)

16. Scenario Modeling

17. Instability Triggers

18. Comparative Ottoman Parallel

19. Ramadan Ethical Reflection

20. Conclusion and Strategic Recommendations

☾ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ☾

✧ ───────────── ✧ ───────────── ✧
وَاللَّهُ غَالِبٌ عَلَىٰ أَمْرِهِ
And Allah prevails over His affair.
✧ ───────────── ✧ ───────────── ✧

 (Justice)

۞ ۞ ۞
إِنَّ اللَّهَ يَأْمُرُ بِالْعَدْلِ وَالْإِحْسَانِ
Indeed, Allah commands justice and excellence. (16:90)
۞ ۞ ۞

 (Ramadan Reflection)

✧ ❁ ✧ ❁ ✧
In Ramaḍān, reform begins in the heart
before it appears in the State.
✧ ❁ ✧ ❁ ✧

(Strategic Sobriety)

• World Justice Project, Rule of Law Index 2025, Country Profile: Iran.

• Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2025, Iran Country Data.

• World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators, Political Stability Data (2024).

• Ibn Khaldūn, Al-Muqaddimah, trans. Franz Rosenthal.

• Qur’an 16:90.

(Ottoman style)

☾ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ☾
العدل ميزان الدول
Justice is the scale of Nations.
☾ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ☾